I thought it would be fun to figure out how special my dream girl is. I’ll admit right now that my methods are sloppy, and have lots of room for improvement. It was hard to find data that had similar sample sizes, and i made some (statically speaking) wild assumptions on some of these numbers.
Currently, i think it would be awesome to have some around me that has the following traits. She has Red Hair, is Smart, is a good age (18-25) and a relaxed person.
| Trait | How its quantified | % | source |
| She | a human Female | 50% | Genetics; its about equal chance |
| Red hair | ~625-740nm | 2% | I remember reading it (?) |
| Smart | IQ is over 130 | 2.5 % | based on a Gaussian curve |
| 18-25 | 18,19,20,21… | 11% | looked up at census bureau |
| relaxed | low stress/ a slacker | 26.7% | just picked out the lazy ones |
So, then it was just a simple matter of:
(60/100)x(2/100)x(2.5/100)x(11/100)x(26.7/100) = 0.000007343
Or, to find the probability of finding my redhaired goddess, 1/0.000007343 = 1 in 136,193.4
I don’t feel very confident about many of the stats I used, so i’m pretty happy with using 1 in 136,000.
To put this number in perspective, consider the population of the world. 6.6 billion people on this blue dot, but how many of them would I date?
6,600,000,000/136,000 ~48,530, which is roughly the population of Caymen Islands. The smallest state in terms of population, Wyoming, has 10x this, at 522,830.
Involving the percentages used, I had some problems getting the data. I understand that the redhead population density isn’t as strong in Mexico as it is in Ireland. So assuming 2% for America is really just an educated guess. As Humans get older, Men die off before women (for a variety of reasons), and its really closer to a world average of 51%. I really need the data for humans ages 18-25 for Male/Females, but couldn’t find it. I assumed that even at 25, this was sufficiently young enough to still have an almost even distribution of males and females. IQs change, but not too dramatically. You’re a fool to use this as a metric for anything except capacity, which is what I’m doing here. IQ isn’t a measure of how much someone knows – lots of people think this! I Think the most controversial would be my choice of lazy Jugian personality types. Or the sample size of 22,000 for the breakdown of percent types. I suspected that my number would range from 15 to 40%, and thought it would be centered around 30%. I’d love to hear a better way to count the slackers.
If you manage to be in that special group of 48,530, I’d love to meet you.
